Election in PK-45

PK-45 Circle Bakote By-Election
A new test case in Pakistani national politics

FOR MORE NEWS & INFORMATION
read these blogs also
<Latest PML (N) Circle Bakote political activities>
<Latest Tehreek e Insaf political activities>
<Latest news from Election Commission of Pakistan>
**************************************

Searched & Written by

MOHAMMED OBAIDULLAH ALVI

Journalist, Historian and Anthropologist
<See also latest news of Circle Bakote>

**************************************

What Happens tomorrow

By elections in
Circle Bakote

A few hour remains for results

***************************************

Read this Urdu article for election historical information

***************************************

Map of political Circle Bakote

BIROTE - The bitter rivalry between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is bound to escalate as supporters of both parties prepare to cast their ballot in the PK-45 by-elections on June 5.

Governor Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan Abbasi had clinched the seat in last year’s general elections by securing 27,734 votes with the runner-up, PTI’s Abdul Rehman Abbasi, bagging 14,538 votes. The seat fell vacant two months back, when Mehtab resigned after his elevation as the governor of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. A total of seven candidates are running in the by-polls, however, the real contest is between PML-N’s Sardar Fareed Ahmed Khan Abbasi, first cousin and brother-in-law of the governor, and PTI’s Ali Asghar Khan, the younger son of veteran politician Air Marshal (retd) Asghar Khan, who serves the party as its regional vice president.

After having gone through an exhaustive number of corner meetings in eight union councils (UC) of the remote constituency, mostly comprising hilly areas, both leading candidates and their supporters have been going door-to-door in a last-ditch effort to garner the most votes.

Politics of dynasty and development

Since the first party-less election of 1985, the seat which was earlier known as PF-35 has been the stronghold of the governor’s family, with the present candidate and the governor’s son Sardar Shamon Yar Khan having secured it in the past. Despite having a higher literacy rate with more than one dozen PhDs compared to other areas of the district and an abundance of forests, water springs and minerals, the area of Bakot Circle, ruled by Mehtab’s family for decades, has unfortunately remained ignored and underdeveloped.

Spread over 100 square kilometres with its boundaries touching Muzaffarabad (ajk) in the north east, Galyat in the west, Mansehra in the north and Dewal, the last Union Council of Punjab in the south, the picturesque valley of Circle Bakot (PTI promised Tehsil of district Abbottabad) has only three higher secondary schools for boys and two high schools for girls. Apart from being ill-equipped with essentials such as teaching staff and furniture, these schools hardly cater to the needs of a population of over 300,000 people. Government Girls Higher School Birote students are sitting on stones at Termuthean, near Hazara Punjab border in hottest season in between May to August and coldest during November to February since 2005 continuesly because Sardar Mehtab supported contractor escaped from site in Kahu East after demolishing school building and newly sitting Governor of KPK Sardar Mehtab has taken no notice of said contractor till now. There is no college for boys or girls, nor is there a technical college. Thus, those who can afford to prefer to send their children to Abbottabad, Murree, Rawalpindi or Islamabad for a decent education.

With regards to health care, there are only two basic health units – one in Moliya and the other in Bakot – which too are short of staff and basic services. Meanwhile, the rural health centres in Boi, Birote and Bakot are three projects that are yet to take off the ground. Owing to lack of health care facilities, ill and ill fated people are forced to go to Muzaffarabad, Murree and Garhi Habibullah or Rawalpindi and Islamabad to seek medical treatment, but heavy snowfall during winter blocks most roads, leaving only so many ways to reach other towns and cities.

Irfan Abbasi, a resident of Nambal village, said the 2005 earthquake destroyed almost all schools in the area. He added that about 70% of government school buildings are yet to be rebuilt, forcing students of primary and high schools to attend classes either in the open or under tents in dilapidated conditions. “Is this the service the great governor has done to his area,” questioned Irfan, adding that Mehtab has never realised the hardships of the people who have always supported him and his family. He said Mehtab shuttles between Peshawar and Islamabad and rarely visits the area, adding that when he does do so, he comes to offer fateha or attend wedding ceremonies of influential supporters.

Social activist Naveed Akram Abbasi termed the by-election the most interesting one in recent times, as earlier there had hardly ever been a strong candidate to challenge Mehtab’s family seat. “He (Mehtab) used to call voters to his home in Abbottabad, asking them to vote for him or his relatives – but the times have changed now,” he said. He claimed that this time around young and educated voters have revolted against the politics of dynasty and are in awe of Ali Asghar Khan who gives much more respect to the electorate.

Moreover, Ali’s NGO, the Omar Asghar Khan Foundation, which has rebuilt several schools and carried out uplift projects in the area, has won him substantial praise from development-deprived locals.

Deciding factor

Some observers reluctant to accept Ali as a strong candidate state that he is a non-resident with no support of local clans and does not even know how to converse in Hindko west and Dhundi/ Keriali in east – the region’s main languages. But others who site his social services and “highly-educated human rights oriented approach” deem him a strong candidate.

“If Ali is an outsider, so to speak, then Fareed too is a resident of Islamabad,” claimed Naeem Abbasi, a PTI supporter, adding that the PML-N candidate – a poultry and carpet businessman – has built a home in Islamabad and only visits the area during election days. He said the incumbency factor weighs heavily on PML-N. Nevertheless, they have managed to retain the seat since 1985, he added.

A villager from Boi UC, Muzaffar Qureshi, claimed that although Birote, Palak and Bakot UCs are the stronghold of PML-N, Ali has successfully made a dent in Fareed’s vote bank there. He claimed that Boi, Dalola, Kukmang and Nambal areas would decide the winner.

He said the support of Pir Azhar and Nazir Abbasi, former nazims of Bakot, has strengthened the PTI candidate’s position while in Nambal, the support of Gulzar Abbasi would also prove helpful for Ali. However, he believes Palak UC would be the area where both contestants go neck-to-neck.

In case the seat is bagged by Fareed, the PML-N numbers in the provincial assembly will once again reach 17, equal to Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl’s, whose MPA Lutfur Rehman took Mehtab’s slot as the opposition leader in the house. Both sides have been making frantic efforts in the past weeks to win sympathies of voters with Governor Abbasi and Chief Minister Pervez Khattak’s visits to the region.

How dear the seat is to PTI can be gauged from the fact that party chief Imran Khan visited the constituency twice, on May 24 and June 3, addressing public meetings in far-off areas and making promises of ‘change’.

It is confirmed that PTI also has the support of Jamaat-e-Islami and Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat along with tacit assurance from some influential figures of Pakistan Peoples Party for its candidate.

However, at the end, it is the voters’ own perception of things that will decide the victory of either candidate. Whether they choose to embrace PTI’s ‘change’ and end the politics of dynasty or prefer the age-old tribal and clan loyalties irrespective of what it has delivered will be clear come Friday morning.

PUBLIC HOLIDAY

The district administration has declared June 5 a public holiday in the jurisdiction of the provincial assembly constituency to ensure smooth by-elections. According to a press release issued from the office of Abbottabad District Commissioner Matiullah Khan, carrying and using weapons in the limits of the entire district has been banned under Section 144 of the Pakistan Penal Code.

**************************************

Eleven candidates are presently in the field for contesting the by-election on the provincial assembly seat, KP-45 (Circle Bakote, proposed sub division of District Abbottabad), scheduled to be held on June 5th, Thursday. The seat fell vacant after Sardar Mehtab Ahmad Khan resigned as member provincial assembly before taking oath as Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Saeed Abbasi, candidate of Jamaet e Islami

Saeed Abbasi announcing his party favour with Ali Asgher Khan in Birote

With the exception of Jamaat Islami’s Saeed Abbasi, PML-N’s covering candidate, ex-MPA and Sardar Mehtab’s son, Sardar Shamoon Yar and PTI’s covering candidate Nazir Abbasi (of Union Council Bakote), the remaining eight candidates have never contested any election in the past. Saeed Abbasi of Union Council Birote) contested from KP-45 in last year’s elections and got up to seven thousand votes.

Fareed Khan, candidate of PML N

Those who filed nomination papers include PML-N’s Sardar Fareed Ahmed (covering candidate Sardar Shamoon Yar Khan), PTI’s Ali Asghar Khan (covering candidate Nazir Abbasi), JI’s Saeed Abbasi (covering candidate Ameen Abbasi), JUI-F’s Akram Abbasi (covering candidate Zulfiqar Abbasi), PPP’s Manzoor Mumtaz Abbasi, PPP-Shaheed Bhutto’s Changez Abbasi, and independent Anwar Abbasi.

Sardar Mehtab, Governor KPK

PML-N candidate Sardar Fareed Ahmed is first cousin of Sardar Mahtab and younger brother of former MNA Sardar Fida Ahmed. Initially, it was expected that Sardar Mahtab would field one of his two younger brothers – Sardar Ishtiaq or Sardar Shuja – but pressure from within the family made him decide in favour of Sardar Fareed.

Sardar Shamoon Yar, Sardar Mahtab’s second son who was elected MPA during 2008 elections, disappointed his electorate due to his immature attitude in contrast to his father who with dignity and maturity kept his voters happy in his 29 years political career.

Some political observers are of the view that along with so many other factors, Sardar Shamoon Yar was a major factor of the shocking defeat of Sardar Mahtab in the May 11 2013 general election to PTI’s Dr Azhar Jadoon from NA-17 Abbottabad.

Imran Khan, Chairman Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf

Imran Khan, despite much pressure from local party leadership, opted to award the PTI ticket to Ali Asghar Khan, son of Air Marshal (Retd) Asghar Khan. Ali Asghar is a political non-local in PK-45 constituency as he is based in Islamabad and has a house in Abbottabad. However, the NGOs of late Omar Asghar Khan (Sungi) and Omar Asghar Foundation of Ali Asghar Khan are active in social and development work in this constituency since 1990. However, someone like Raja Mubeen of Union Council Plak who is a local and financially sound and was denied party ticket may play the spoiler’s role out of jealousy for Ali Asghar.

Ali Asgher Khan, candidate of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf

Like elsewhere in the province, the PTI is clearly divided into two groups in Abbottabad district too. One is headed by MNA Dr Azhar Jadoon and the other by Ali Asghar Khan. Dr Azhar Jadoon is supported by MPA Sardar Idrees and former National Assembly Deputy Speaker Sardar Muhammad Yaqoob. On the other hand, Ali Asghar Khan is supported by Sardar Sher Bahadur and Nazir Abbasi. Dr Azhar Jadoon tried his best to persuade Imran Khan to award the party ticket to Raja Mubeen. He protested when Ali Asghar was given the party ticket. It is interesting to note that Raja Abdur Rehman, the PTI ticket holder in the May 2013 general election and Nazir Abbasi as an independent candidate got more than 14,000 and 6,000 votes, respectively. But this time Nazir Abbasi is supporting Ali Asghar as the party candidate instead of running as an independent. PPP also has considerable presence in this constituency but it is unlikely to cause an upset. Its candidate may withdraw in favour of any other candidate if the party’s provincial leadership so decided.

JI candidate Saeed Abbasi had bagged 5,600 votes in last year’s polls. The PTI and JI are coalition partners in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa now and if they make seat adjustment and JI candidate withdraws in favour of Ali Asghar then it will be tough for the PML-N candidate to make it to the assembly.

Sardar Mahtab being the governor cannot run the by-election campaign of his cousin, Sardar Fareed, who is new to the electoral politics.If Sardar Fareed loses the by-election, it will be a major blow to Sardar Mahtab politically. Since 1985 Sardar Mahtab or his cousin or brother-in-law has been winning both the national and provincial assembly elections. Sardar Mahtab did not contest the 2002 election from any seat.

On the other hand, Imran Khan has strictly directed his party’s MNA and MPAs from Abbottabad to fully support his nominee, Ali Asghar, in the PK-45 or else they will face the wrath of party discipline. Yet PML-N has a solid vote-bank in the area and the Mahtab factor still counts a lot in Bakot and its periphery that forms the constituency. It is an other set back for PTI in UC Birote as ex-councilor Atiq Abbasi joined PML N. Ex Nazim Birote Tahir Fraz Abbasi advocate says that there are no loss of PTI without Atiq Abbasi.

Tehsil & 3 colleges for Circle Bakote

Promised TI Chief Imran Khan in Birote and Pattan public meetings

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan has promised to make CIRCLE BAKOTE a tehsil of District Abbottabad and announced establishment of three degree colleges in Birote, Patan and Boi. Imran Khan said that after the local government elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the developmental works would be expedited. The PTI chief said that currently everything was going adverse, the poverty increasing and the ruling class getting wealthier. He said their initiatives in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would have positive results in the coming three months. Addressing two public meetings at Berote and Pattan Kalan in connection with by-election in the provincial assembly constituency PK-45, Abbottabad on Saturday, 24th May. Imran Khan assured that their slogan of ‘change’ would become a reality and would be visible to public in three months.

The by-election in Abbottabad is scheduled to be held on June 5. The seat fell vacant after the resignation of Sardar Mehtab Ahmed Khan. Imran criticised the PML-N government in the Centre and termed it an “affair dominated by Sharif family.” Imran Khan criticised the “family politics” of Sharif brothers and said the Sharif family had 22-member sitting in the Parliament. “I introduced neutral umpires in cricket and will also do it in Pakistan’s elections for transparency,” he added. The PTI chief promised in Birote and Pattan Kalan to make CIRCLE BAKOTE a tehsil and announced establishment of three degree colleges in Birote, Patan and Boi. Imran Khan said that after the local government elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the developmental works would be expedited. The PTI chief said that currently everything was going adverse, the poverty increasing and the ruling class getting wealthier.

He questioned the PML-N leadership to bring their own wealth from abroad, instead of asking others to do that. Regarding the transparency of the by-election, Imran made it clear that they would hold free and fair elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa without taking into consideration whether they win or lose the seat.

Ali Asghar Khan, the PTI candidate, Saeed Abbasi, Mushtaq Ghani and others also addressed the meeting and said time has come that people should now burry the politics of “baradari” for development of the area.

Gathring of Birotians at Imran public meeting

People are en-way to Birote, participating in PTI public meeting today (Photo by Naweed Akram Abbasi Bakote)

An agitation held against Molana Iqrar Abbasi arrest in front of UNO office in Islamabad on 26th May at 2PM and Jamaet e Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaet Circle Bakote held an agitation in Birote against a media house on 23rd May after Juma Prayers.

CURRENT POLITICAL ACTIVITIES